from Julius Jung
Wednesday, August 18, 2021 | 0
Will Governor Gavin Newsom be dismissed, and what does the recall mean for the California workforce?
Julius Jung
California voters are already starting to send in their ballots for the September 14 recall election. Although a lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court seeks to stop the recall of a theory that claims it is unconstitutional, the election is still ongoing.
The reliability of the polls on this election may be in doubt, but the race looks close. An Aug. 15 poll by CBS News / YouGov found “remove” at 48% and “don’t remove” at 52%. Other recent polls of likely voters found the recall numbers in the affirmative at 47% (LA Times), 46% (Emerson) and 51% (KABC).
One big unknown is who the likely voters will be.
Newsom’s allies are trying to reach the Democratic base with a barrage of ads. His war chest is huge, with massive funding from tech-networked contributors, unions, and others. They find that many of California’s problems weren’t caused by Newsom, and that he inherited dire problems with the pandemic, drought, forest fires, and homelessness. They believe the recall is a seizure of power.
Recall advocates will be way over the top but rely on a energetic Republican base and a feeling that many California independent voters are not happy with Newsom. They believe Californians, especially independents, are terribly unhappy with school and business closings, homelessness, forest fire suppression measures, and crime.
From their point of view, the Californians will be looking for a new direction. They believe there is a widespread dislike for Newsom’s preppy personality, citing his deaf actions, eating at fancy restaurants, and sending his children to school and camp while others are closed or masked. They also criticize the failures of the Ministry of Employment Development’s unemployment system under its supervision.
Who will vote?
The 2020 elections saw a decline in democratic support among Hispanics in Texas and Florida. It’s unclear whether California’s Democratic Latino grassroots will come out in large numbers to support Newsom and oppose the recall. Will younger Democratic voters and union members also take the time to vote? Will President Joe Biden, embroiled in controversy over the execution of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, be able to save Newsom? Is the Democratic black voice being encouraged to oppose the recall? How does the presence of a black substitute candidate affect this turnout?
So in mid-August, the prospect of a recall seems to be fluid.
If voters support the removal, the leading replacement candidates will both be with no government experience. The leader in the polls is Republican Larry Elder, a conservative broadcaster. Elder would be California’s first black governor. Second in the polls is Democrat Kevin Paffrath, a Southern California real estate investor and YouTube star.
If Newsom is called back, what would it mean for the California workforce?
Newsom never articulated much about the workers ‘cooperative, and there was relatively little legislative and regulatory activity by the workers’ cooperative during his tenure.
Worker compensation did not emerge as an issue in the recall, and compensation would likely be a low priority for a new governor anytime soon. It is not clear that any of the key competition stakeholders have close ties with Elder or Paffrath.
Governors are making appointments, so that would be part of the recall. If Newsom did not fill the vacant Labor Compensation Appeal Board position soon, it would fall to a new governor.
While the specific impact of the industrial action on workers is not easy to see, if Newsom is recalled it will be a political earthquake. The legislative playing field will shift. It will likely be more difficult for employee representatives to drive the kind of tweaks to the system that they would like to see.
I suspect Newsom will prevail by a narrow margin.
Julius Young is an attorney for candidates and an associate at Boxer & Gerson law firm of Oakland. This column was reprinted from his Workers Comp Zone blog on the company’s website with his permission.
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